We are in trouble.
A public health expert just wrote to me: With an attack rate of 15% one would expect about 1,500 deaths a year with flu in Lombardy. They hit 5,402 today, with no obvious signs of slowing, despite a complete lockdown x18 days. If anyone still needs convincing – this is not Flu.
There’s little value to European travel restrictions. Poor use of time & energy. Earlier, yes. Now, travel restrictions/screening are less useful. We have nearly as much disease here in the US as the countries in Europe. We MUST focus on layered community mitigation measures-Now!
Day three of Italy slowing. This could indicate it’s nearing the peak, and could further indicate a four week peak projection, not a six week projection, for hot spots in the U.S. Fingers crossed and praying. twitter.com/DrEricDing/sta…..
Sadly, the numbers now suggest the U.S. is poised to take the lead in #coronavirus cases. It’s reasonable to plan for the US to top the list of countries with the most cases in approximately 1 week. This does NOT make social intervention futile. It makes it imperative!
In two weeks, we will regret wasting time and energy on travel restrictions and wish we focused more on hospital preparation and large scale community mitigation.
See thread. Once a state is over 1% prevalence, it becomes much harder to extinguish the flare up. It will take a huge effort to put out these outbreak fires. More than masks alone. We could top 500k US deaths this year if this trend continues. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1279786…..
It’s now or never for the U.S. if it hopes to keep coronavirus from burning out of control washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…..
Lot’s of people asking me. There is NO such thing as a Stafford Act national lockdown authority. It just DOES NOT work that way people. Let’s tap down silly rumors. #Coronavirus
We’ve lost over 96,000 souls in the US from #COVID (in <3 months), and will eclipse 100,000 Monday. A colleague wrote me, if we read every name aloud (which takes ~3 secs per name on 9/11), it’d take over 80 hours to read them; longer than the entire Memorial Day 3-day weekend. twitter.com/nytimes/status…..
Let’s apply our test again. In two weeks, when we look back, what would we wish we had done today?
Georgia's #Covid numbers don't meet the 1st gating criterion. Cases trending up🔺 @GovKemp, if disease transmission picks up after a rush to lift interventions, GA would pay the full cost of interventions w/out the benefit, esp. if you return to lock down. ~18k cases, 726 deaths. https://t.co/3Lj6WOGdlH
On @ThisWeekABC today I shared some estimates on the number of infectious people in FL. Here are estimates for AZ, CA, GA, TX...
I have a great public health colleague who manages outbreaks by asking: Two weeks from now, what will we wish we had done today. He puts that question in a little time capsule, and asks you two weeks later what you wish you had said, in retrospect.
I also said I do not see evidence of an impeachable offense. twitter.com/maggieNYT/stat…..
#Covid appears to transmit effectively under hot and sticky conditions.
Hope for shortened survival times of C19 at higher relative humidity & temp RH (75%) & F (94. F) are encouraging, but the continued robust transmission rates seen in the tropics is very discouraging.
This is a clear lesson for economic advisors worried that school closures and social distancing will lead to economic loss — THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO BEING A LATE MOVER! Now, Italy will lose unrecoverable productivity AND be too late to prevent peak disease spread. @CDCDirector twitter.com/BNODesk/status…..
The case fatality rate is the percentage of people infected that die. People saying it’s only 1% must acknowledge the total number goes up, in real lost lives, if we prematurely return to open society w/out controls. More infected people means more total deaths. 1% of 66M = 660K.
I urge everyone in the public health community to read this article and be bold and confident when briefing their leadership and communities.@tomaspueyo link.medium.com/aNvjs2ctL4..
What are the hundreds of thousands of infectious people in these states doing right now? Isolating? Are their family members quarantining themselves? How many days does it take for them to notify people with whom they have been in close contact? Are they even notifying others?
Lots of you asking me about this @realDonaldTrump tweet. I have NO insight into his thinking, but suspect what he’s considering is a cordon sanitaire, the restriction of movement of people into or out of an area (like a city) to stop the spread of virus. I tweeted on it recently. twitter.com/realDonaldTrum…..
Let’s be constructive and not political. @realDonaldTrump made a tremendous and positive step last night to convey the seriousness of this virus and the deliberate urgency with which we must now act. #coronavirus
.@realDonaldTrump #Coronavirus press conference: Good tone; look after the most vulnerable. Very strong leadership; waiving red tape & making assistance available. Very wise to bring in the private sector and remind us to continue interventions with closures and cancellations. 👍
National, but targeted please. The paradox of the coronavirus response is that it only works if we take aggressive steps before they seem necessary and, if they work, will not have seemed necessary. Success will look like we overreacted.https://t.co/AugyhgZnpj twitter.com/JenniferJJacob…..
Masks are important, but not enough. “We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.” See: imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…..